Many people are dealing with existential dread this week as the west coast of the US is on fire. Millions of people are trapped in their homes and untold secondary consequences are sure to occur. I knew this was coming and am not surprised.

In 2014(?) my brother argued that man made global warming wasn't real and pointed to resources that argued against it. I followed the people behind those sources for awhile and determined they were in every case blinded by confirmation biases. They were constantly engaging in the same behavior and thinking they accused the other side of. Months of research led to zero concrete evidence that human-caused climate change was not real.

Concluding that human-caused climate change was definitely real led me down the path to install solar in my home and get an electric car. All told I invested the majority of my work bonuses for 3 years into significantly de-carbonizing our family. I traded in a car I loved to go electric. I wanted to get a Model 3 but cancelled the pre-order when I didn't know when the car would come. It didn't make sense to wait purely for my personal desire.

I generally looked to the IPCC report for guidance on the effects of global warming but was worried about how little we understood. Many other sources looked at rain averages vs damaging impact of higher variability around the mean. We could clearly see the difference in Los Angeles as heavy rains turned mountains green and then yellow shortly thereafter. How much rain was irrelevant to the fire risk. We also clearly didn't understand how the ocean was warming and the impact that would have.

At some point I stumbled upon what had happened in the Permian Extinction. Over 70% of land life and 95% of sea life were wiped out over the course of thousands of years. Learning more about it established a clear mental model in my head. If we burn all of the fossil fuel in the ground, then we're likely to see a 10 degree Celsius temperature rise and kill of most of the life on earth. And that is over thousands of years. Accelerate the pace of change and it could be worse.

That mental model means I am not going to be surprised by anything that comes from global warming. Who knows what the tipping point really is. Who knows how local climate will be impacted. Who knows how bad things like thunderstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. will get because they don't show up in the fossil records. As bad as it gets I will always have an expectation that it could get worse.

So why am I hopeful? Because earlier impacts will lead to earlier actions. Painful impacts in the US are more likely to lead to change than if they had occurred elsewhere. I know how we can adapt and manage the impacts. Humans have a tremendous capacity to adapt as individuals and societies. History shows that nature is bound to destroy life itself at some point in the future. Only humans can prevent that from happening. Being forced to face the truth and deal with existential threats earlier is a good thing.

It was my son's birthday this week and I had some work to do this weekend (was I catching up or trying to get ahead of the week? it is hard to tell these days). I made sure to spend some quality time with both of the children this weekend and confirm they were doing OK. They seemed oblivious to the fact that the world is on fire and the significance of the record breaking heat we had. The emotional weight of it all is exhausting. They were happy though. Wish I could say the same. At least I can still enjoy the little things like pride in my work, learning, taking care of myself, taking in beauty and the fleeting joys of parenting. And hope for a better future. I wonder if any previous generation had to deal with the weight of leaving a worse world for their children than the one they inherited? Is there still a chance to turn it around? Can future technological progress offset how much we screwed up the climate, energy preparedness (when can we get off fossil fuels completely without killing people in the process?) & health? Thinking a lot about religion and the role it has played in getting humans this far.

This week I just ran out of gas and forgot to write. I scheduled a dinner for my son's birthday on Saturday. He wanted to watch the planes at Van Nuys airport, but that restaurant wasn't open. I thought an outdoor dining experience by Santa Monica airport would be a good replacement. It wasn't. I don't think we'll be eating out again for awhile and I doubt we'll make the special trip there again. I was so worried about my son and my family I forgot to check to see what I would eat there. I made the wrong choice and ended up in pain later. We drove down the coast to enjoy a beautiful sunset at Point Dume. The kids were so happy and the scenery was so beautiful I savored my time there despite the pain. I was in no position to write after that. Sunday left no time for writing as I spent most of the day working. 

I didn't even think about what I would write this past week. There was too much to do. After attending my first PTO meeting I felt like I needed to do something to help out. I spent hours discovering how broken that system was. Parent organizations are all so fractured and disjointed there is no concerted effort to come together. I spent hours looking for a sample survey to send out to get feedback from parents. No luck in the national PTA, California PTA, various PTO groups, Los Angeles parent groups, etc. I went looking for the survey the LAUSD put out in June and they never published the full results publicly. They only shared what they wanted to. It is all so broken.

I volunteered to lead the survey efforts myself. We'll see where that goes. I can do the work myself, but I can't fix anything on my own. It has to be a community effort. 

I was a little broken myself after getting the news of Chadwick Boseman's passing on Friday. That hit me harder than I expected. Reading about what he meant to people. Watching him speak at events I hadn't seen before. Seeing the clear reflection, thoughtfulness, caring and pain in everything he did. In death he inspired me to max out my donation to the Biden/Harris campaign. In sharing that on Twitter I inspired at least one other person to do the same. Maybe if we all just work a little bit harder to fix things it won't be so broken. I hope so.

Starting at 1:45AM on a Saturday/Sunday, I have tons of work to do and still not 100% health-wise means it is once again a stream of conscious post this week. Not sure exactly where the extra saltiness is coming from. No time to figure it out. I need to write quickly and get to bed.

The title emerged out of a WSJ article on the 2009 H1N1 response in the WSJ from Kimberly Strassel that attempts to compare the response there to Covid-19. That is click bait bullshit. In the early days of a pandemic no one has demonstrated the ability to get it right. No one. Despite that fact the overall US mortality in 2009 is indistinguishable from surrounding years. 

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I'll bet that 2020 stands out against not only surrounding years and also against peer countries. Looks like it will be about +15% in the US with many peer countries at 0-10% based on the latest NYT excess mortality tracker.

I would look more into the comparison if Kim was writing in good faith and making valid comparisons. There is a non-click bait version of that article that has more analysis done to accurately judge the 2009 response without normalizing Trump. That also recognizes there was no recent precedent for 2009 while the current crises had the potential to take learning from both 2009 and 2014 to improve our response. You know, like Obama did when he got directly involved with the GHSA
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/07/28/fact-sheet-global-health-security-agenda

And contemporaneous account from the NYT sounds nothing like what Strassel is implying.
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"Even Dr. Peter Palese, a leading virologist at Mount Sinai Medical School, who can be a harsh critic of public policies he disagrees with, called the government’s overall response 'excellent.'"

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/02/health/02flu.html

Fuck Trump is self explanatory but is specifically driven by his actions as a destroyer. I just read Michael Osterholm's call to action in "Deadliest Enemy" from March 2017 where he calls the WHO ineffective for global control of infectious diseases and argues for a replacement. He doesn't call for leaving the WHO before doing the work to get a replacement in place because that would be fucking insane for any rational person with a modicum of knowledge in infectious diseases to recommend. Did Trump do any work to build a replacement before pulling out? Has he done anything since? Of course not. Anyone responsible for letting him destroy things has blood on their hands. How much blood? I don't know. Calling out the specific numbers and getting into semantic arguments like the Democratic leadership is currently doing is dumb. Trump is not responsible for all of the deaths. There are also significant costs beyond the deaths. Just compare the US to peer countries and move the fuck on. We don't have time or energy for this irrelevant bullshit. Stop providing ammunition to run click bait centrist articles that inevitably turn into weaponized social media and right wing counters. I'm sure right wing grifters are eating up the Strassel article and lazily regurgitating the same sloppy conclusions based on bad data (e.g. using estimated 2009 cases vs confirmed 2020 cases).

Once again, I am tired and not writing about what I expected. I am sure I will finish this after 2 AM after getting up at 7AM to take my daughter to swim class. I spent a couple of nights working until 3AM this week and have a lot more work to do this weekend. How can anyone possibly balance family, exercise, work, learning, staying up on current events and sleep right now? I do not know the answer. I am just trying my best to not regret not doing more and nothing suffers too much. I am relying on my Oura ring to let me know when I need to take a nap to catch up on sleep.

The topic this week jumped to the forefront of my thinking when I was banned for two months from popular gaming site Resetera. I do not know if it was because I didn’t provide sources for what I posted or if that would not have mattered. I do know that I stand by what I wrote. The more I investigated it and thought about it the more important I determined it was.  

There is an interesting tangent here with the NeoGAF/Resetera split and current political conversations. I recently read The Righteous Mind and it has implications there. I am currently reading through Wait Buy Why/Tim Urbans’ epic articles on “The Story of Us” and there are implications there as well. The combination of those two sources with the gaming community split is really interesting. I hope to come back to it later.

For now I will focus on the “conspiracy theory” that got me banned. First a small side-note from an audiobook chapter I heard on my nightly walk tonight. Do these quotes from a world-renowned epidemiologist sound relevant to today?

“In this case, I’m certain that the wrong conclusions from CDC officials … resulted in many more … becoming seriously ill and even dying.”

“This [recommendations from a US medical professional association] turned out to be exactly the wrong advice.”

“Another lesson I learned from my experience… if you don’t know what you are talking about, then don’t talk, or at least say you don’t know.”

“… my launching pad into the big leagues of epidemiologic investigation and analysis; it made me realize how easily data can be misinterpreted into flawed science and how important it is to get a number of perspectives on board. And it taught me to make sure you ask the right questions, lest you be led to the wrong answers.”

They are from the book Deadliest Enemy originally published in March 2017. They come from a chapter on the initial investigation into a rise of Toxic Shock Syndrome tied to tampons in 1980.

From the beginning of January, I have been significantly ramping up my knowledge of infectious diseases and most specifically SARS-Cov2. I have added ~20 specialists on Twitter over time to my feed. I spend more time than normal scrolling through Twitter to see if there is anything I missed. From July 28-30th one of those Harvard & MIT specialists tweeted out the following across a string of Tweets:

“Seen my favorite TV/news hosts take cheapshots at obvious conspiracy theories like 5G & plandemic, but we need you to start covering plausible nature/lab-scenarios of SARS2 origins in a fair and evidence-based manner. Ask experts to explain their hypothesis+evidence to you.”

"In sum, closest relatives to SARS2:
RaTG13 - very slowly revealed origins tied to miners infected by unknown virus, manifesting SARS-like symptoms in 2012
GD pangolin CoV (with the SARS2 RBD) - data missing and confusion among papers
RmYN02 (natural insertion) - data missing”

“So frustrating for scientists to find that data regarding SARS2 natural origins cannot be accessed.”

Wait what? At first I was confused. I though the scientific evidence said it wasn’t a lab created virus. It turns out I was thinking about it wrong. There is a difference between created in a lab and escaped from a lab. There is also a difference between likely and possible. She was just pointing out that it remained a possibility until a source was identified. There was no evidence disproving it as a possibility. Clearly, I had been missing something. It was not just something. It was a lot of things.

First let’s go back through this specific source. She published a paper in May that has some important things that are relevant here:

“Our observations suggest that by the time SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in late 2019, it was already pre-adapted to human transmission to an extent similar to late epidemic SARS-CoV.”

“The sudden appearance of a highly infectious SARS-CoV-2 presents a major cause for concern that should motivate stronger international efforts to identify the source and prevent near future re-emergence.”

“The lack of definitive evidence to verify or rule out adaptation in an intermediate host species, humans, or a laboratory, means that we need to take precautions against each scenario to prevent re-emergence.”

“It would be curious if no precursors or branches of SARS-CoV-2 evolution are discovered in humans or animals.”

“While these investigations are conducted, it would be safer to more extensively limit human activity that leads to frequent or prolonged contact with wild animals and their habitats.”

It is now three months later and we don’t have anymore answers. In fact it seems like there are more questions. Digging into threads there were a couple of references to a recently translated 2016 research paper on a pneumonia outbreak on miners in 2012. After awhile I ended up here:

“Our supposition as to why there was a time lag between sample collection (in 2012/2013) and the COVID-19 outbreak is that the researchers were awaiting BSL-4 lab construction and certification, which was underway in 2013 but delayed until 2018.

We propose that, when frozen samples derived from the miners were eventually opened in the Wuhan lab they were already highly adapted to humans to an extent possibly not anticipated by the researchers. One small mistake or mechanical breakdown could have led directly to the first human infection in late 2019.”

“In requesting an investigation we are aware that no scientific institution anywhere has made a comparable request. We believe that this failure undermines public trust in a “scientific response” to the pandemic. Instead, the scientific establishment has labeled the lab escape theory a “rumor“, an “unverified theory” and a “conspiracy” when its proper name is a hypothesis.”

Those are some pretty extreme claims, but even if it stopped there I don’t think it qualifies as a conspiracy theory. This small and independent source has been around since 2006. The paper is written by two PhD's. They have been published in prestigious journals and do not have any major corporate sponsors. Their Wikipedia page has no red flags. They had an article in April on their site that had a headline leaning in the other direction (“Did this Virus Come from a Lab? Maybe Not…”). I found a scientific rating site that give them mixed ratings, but the examples they chose was oddly a direct quote easily verified in an FDA published paper. Is it really pseudoscience if the rebuttal includes information that wasn’t in the original paper? If anything that was an FDA fuck up. And even that rating site has them at a “mild” rating on their conspiracy scale.

Nevertheless, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and I went digging for more. The London Times, India Times and Newsweek all picked up on part of the story. From Newsweek who clearly researched the Times article:

“The miners fell ill with symptoms similar to COVID-19, including a fever, cough, sore limbs, and breathing difficulties. Two men died initially. The four who survived men were tested for a raft of infections, but these came back negative.

At the time, doctors sent blood samples from the patients to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where Shi Zhengli—a scientist dubbed "bat woman" due to her work on coronaviruses in these animals—works.

Four of the men were found to have antibodies for an unknown SARS-like coronavirus. One later died. The coronavirus was not named in the report.”

“However, Jeremy Rossman, honorary senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent, told Newsweek at the time: "The exact origins of the virus and its jump into humans may never be conclusively proven."
Rossman said Monday: "There are clearly some important and unresolved issues about the origins of COVID-19 and in the absence of transparency it is easy for conspiracy theories to grow. It is important to understand the provenance of the RaTG13/RaBtCoV/4991 strain of virus and its relation to the pneumonia cases in Kunming, as this will help us to better understand the evolution and pathology of SARS-CoV-2.”

This is a big deal. The single fact that there was a potential unknown coronavirus outbreak in 2012 is enough to be a big deal without getting into any theories. How was this not known earlier? Why is it not being discussed more? There are four sources here and a translated 2016 research paper that has been accepted by all of them. That 2016 research paper clearly references viruses. The NIH even has a contemporaneous 2014 account that mentions no known cause. And there is a 2016 paper with Shi’s name on it that details the coronavirus work and makes no mention of the miners but is focused on coronaviruses in the location of the miners.

There is more to this story. The journal Scientific American did an interview with Shi with this claim in it:

“Although the fungus turned out to be the pathogen that had sickened the miners, she says it would have been only a matter of time before they caught the coronaviruses if the mine had not been promptly shut.”

So we have a 2014 source that says unknown. A 2016 source that says virus. And a 2020 source that says they would have got coronavirus, but it was just a fungus?

We also have the fact that the Wall Street Journal (which incidentally was the most broadly trusted source from both political sides in a Wait Buy Why article) published an op-ed on 7/28 that goes even further:

“The alternative explanation, a lab escape, is far more plausible.”

​This is not a conspiracy theory. It is a valid hypothesis with tons of support and big implications. At a minimum the complete dismissal of lab escape potential reflects poorly on the scientific integrity of anyone that considers the evidence and dismisses it as a possibility. You should question any source that does not remain open to the possibility. It is OK to say you don’t know.

It is once again past 2AM and I am very tired. I just spent an hour and a half on a blog post only to find out I was logged out when I went to save. I'll be using Word for future drafts and will have to complete what I intended to do tonight next week. Hopefully I'll get a chance to work on it during the week. The lost work is especially disheartening because I am starting to feel a growing disconnect from other people and it is weighing on me. People are so eager to get back to normal or give up. I don't think we're returning to normal and there is so much work to be done. It is very hard to have conversations about it. 

There are so many systems and flaws that have been exposed in our society. I am most surprised by the complete ineptitude of corporations to use their significant influence and resources to improve outcomes or plan better for the future. Do people that strongly support capitalism to solve all of society's problems not realize what has happened? Why has it happened? Is it a structural failure, driven by incompetence, over-whelmed executives struggling to gather information that they weren't prepared for or from over-politicization at senior levels? Even if you ignore the personal costs to their employees and customers they have still failed from a purely economic standpoint.

Secondarily are the failings of state/local governments on both sides of the political spectrum. There are no winners here. Just a bunch of losers. Do shades of gray matter when no one is happy? Do inept governments have any chance of realizing there better potential for addressing these types of problems when they can't execute and exhibit the same character flaws? The clear politicization of the WHO is another problem that will need to be addressed later. Why aren't informal governance systems like PTOs emerging to address issues?

The scope of talking about this is so large. I don't think I can fully tackle the big picture quite yet. I certainly don't have answers. Next week I will just focus on the facts and putting together a contemporaneous account of what I see. TBD where I go from there. I too would like to move on from Covid-19. I suspect I won't be able to.

It is 2:01 AM and my Oura is telling me it is my bedtime. I am very tired despite having taken two days off work ahead of the weekend and today is Saturday. Does time off even help when there is little rest and no way to get away from it all? I took a nap today and really needed it because my back hurt a lot. That rest at least allowed my to complete my nightly 2.5 mile walk and struggle through some light weight lifting tonight. There is no editing today. No word-smithing or drafts. This is just stream of consciousness to get the work started.

I had hoped to get a better start on this. That will have to wait. I still hope to produce posts weekly in the future. I have lots of ideas. Here is where I am thinking of going with upcoming posts:

1) Just because someone that disagrees with you is wrong, doesn't make you right. Very relevant with the pandemic around us and everyone seemingly an armchair expert. This toxic thinking is pervasive right now.

2) The PTO mom who didn't want to fund the school board and the direct line from there to where we are today.

3) Who I am donating to now and why.

4) A eulogy for Anneliese Betz. A wonderful woman who had a profound impact on my life despite not having any blood relation.

5) Reading update with reflection on books I've read recently. This should be a regular occurrence.

We'll see where this goes.